• Moldova, next door to Ukraine, has been under pressure from Russia for decades.
• Russia has long supported the breakaway region of Transnistria, even stationing troops there.
• Amid the war in Ukraine, Kyiv and Western officials say Moscow is stepping up its interference.

The war in Ukraine has dominated headlines around the world, but that's not the only European country under pressure from Russia's military.

Moldova, formerly part of the Soviet Union and now one of Europe's poorest countries, is home to just 2.6 million people and is landlocked, surrounded by Ukraine and Romania. Moldova is also home to Transnistria, a breakaway region with a predominantly Russian-speaking population that Moscow has supported for decades, including with troops.

Moldova is often overlooked and the Russian force there is small, but amid growing tensions, especially in the Black Sea region, Russia's presence in Transnistria is still a problem for Europe.

Moldova "is in the danger zone probably more so than the Baltic countries and Poland," John Sullivan, the US ambassador to Russia from 2020 to 2022, said during a Georgetown University event in February.

Tilting West

In 1990, as the Soviet Union was collapsing, Moldova looked to leave the federation. In an effort to remain part of the Soviet Union, Transnistria attempted to secede.

As a result of a 1992 war between Moldovan forces and Transnistrian separatists, Russian troops entered the breakaway region to support the separatists. Following that war, Transnistria gained a form of autonomy. Russia keeps 1,500 troops there, who it claims act as peacekeepers.

Transnistria is home to a large percentage of Moldova's industrial and manufacturing base due to the presence of Russian businesses there. The region also houses a large depot of Soviet weaponry — although much of it may no longer be usable — and has produced much of Moldova's electricity. (That electricity was produced using Russian gas and the war in Ukraine has interrupted production.)

Despite Russia's 1992 intervention, Moldova maintained strong relations with Moscow. In exchange, it received Russian gas at considerably reduced prices. Chișinău has moved closer to the West, however, establishing relations with NATO in 1992 and signing an association agreement with the EU in 2014.

That Western tilt accelerated after the 2020 election of President Maia Sandu, who has said Moldova "belongs in the EU," and in the aftermath of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which has affected Moldova's economy and brought an influx of Ukrainian refugees.

In April 2022, the EU agreed to provide 150 million euros to assist Moldova in response to the "detrimental effects" caused by Russia's attack on Ukraine. That June, Moldova was accepted as an EU candidate member.

Moldova has synchronized its energy grids with the EU's and has diversified its gas supplies to reduce its reliance on Russia, which had increased gas prices citing unpaid bills. Moldova's prime minister said in May that integration with Europe means Moldova "no longer consumes Russian gas," but the country still uses electricity produced in Transnistria using Russian gas.

Moldova is constitutionally neutral, which means it cannot join NATO as a member, but the alliance opened a liaison office in Moldova in 2017 and is helping Chișinău improve its defense and security capabilities. The country will attend NATO's upcoming summit in Lithuania, where the accession of Sweden will be discussed.

Russian threats

Moldova declared a state of emergency after Russia attacked Ukraine in February 2022, and it remains in effect.

That April, a top Russian general said control of southern Ukraine would give Russia access to Transnistria, where he claimed Russian speakers were being oppressed. A few days later, explosions hit government and military targets in Transnistria, leading to fears that the war was spreading to Moldova.

In February, Ukraine said it had intercepted a Russian plan to overthrow Moldova's government. In March, John Kirby, spokesman for the White House National Security Council, said US officials believed Russia was working "to weaken the Moldovan government probably with the eventual goal of seeing a more Russian-friendly administration."

"Russian actors, some with current ties to Russian intelligence, are seeking to stage and use protests in Moldova as a basis to foment and manufacture insurrection against the Moldovan government," Kirby added.

Pro-Russian sentiment remains strong in some regions of Moldova and there are other signs that feelings toward Moscow are mixed — Moldovan lawmakers voted in March to condemn the invasion only by a narrow margin — but the country is generally pro-European. In April, the EU announced that it would send a civilian mission to Moldova to help protect it against Russian interference.

Russia signaled this year that it may not respect Moldova's sovereignty over the issue of Transnistria, but Russian troops there may not be the best suited for pushing Chișinău around. Only a few are actually Russian, according to Thomas de Waal, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Europe think tank. The rest are Moldovans who have been given Russian passports.

Russian forces in Transnistria "without exaggeration" are probably "the least capable in all of the Russian army," Dara Massicot, an expert on the Russian military at the RAND Corporation think tank, said at a Georgetown University event in April.

Those troops are "isolated," their equipment "is not great," and they have "very little combat power," Massicot added. "It is a distraction, though, and Russia is more than happy to like suggest that Transnistria is going to get involved keep the Ukrainians off balance, to keep Moldova off balance."

Nevertheless, Moldova's military is also in poor shape. Its 6,000 active-duty troops and 12,000 reserves rely mostly on old Soviet equipment, and it has no fighter jets or significant armored forces.

In 2020, Moldova decided to transition to Western hardware and create a "mobile, modular, flexible and functional army." The EU is also helping Moldova boost its non-lethal military capabilities.

In late May, Moldova hosted the second European Political Community summit, during which Moldovan officials said they would press for accelerated EU accession. Sandu said the country could join by 2030 if it pursues economic reforms and fights corruption.

The gathering of 50 national leaders in Chișinău "gives a very strong message," Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, said upon arriving for the summit. "Moldova is at the heart of Europe. Moldova is Europe."

Constantine Atlamazoglou works on transatlantic and European security. He holds a master's degree in security studies and European affairs from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. You can contact him on LinkedIn.

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